Washington Plants Its Flag on Gabonese Potash

Under the white sky of a sweltering 45-degree summer in the vast plains of Iowa, corn stalks rise like millions of soldiers standing to attention. Here, the soil feeds not only America but also one of the most powerful agricultural machines in the world. The United States, the world’s largest producer of corn, cultivates vast expanses with heavy doses of pesticides and John Deere machinery. “In God We Trust,” indeed, but not only. This intensive agricultural system depends heavily on an imported fertilizer: potash. 

These ochre crystals represent far more than just cornfields; they are a crucial lever for global food security and a matter of national sovereignty for the land of Uncle Sam. Primarily composed of potassium chloride, potash has become a strategic input, accounting for a quarter of the world’s fertilizer consumption. Amid rapid population growth and climate disruption, potash shapes wheat and soybean yields and with them, tomorrow’s geopolitical balances. 

The potassium that the United States spreads across its fields largely comes from Canada, but also from Russia. In a world where access to critical minerals has become a game of influence, Washington is keen to secure its supply chains. Its latest bet is a project led by a Canadian company at the heart of Gabon, a new frontier for a mineral that has become a geopolitical prize, bridging mines and farms. 

Seeds of Influence 

Nearly three-quarters of the world’s potash reserves are concentrated in three countries: Canada, Russia and Belarus. Together, they form the nerve centre of global potash supply. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global production reached 65.2 million tonnes in 2023, with an expected rise to 67.6 million tonnes by 2026, driven by growing agricultural demand. The International Fertiliser Association forecasts demand could reach 118 million tonnes by 2050. 

On Canadian Life Support 

The United States has chosen to entrust three-quarters of its potash imports to its northern neighbour. A geographically convenient dependency, certainly, though the relationship has seen some tremors since the Trump era. 

Canada, the world’s largest producer, alone accounts for approximately 21.9 million tonnes annually, according to Natural Resources Canada. This production relies heavily on vast Saskatchewan deposits, operated by a handful of major players such as Compass Minerals, Nutrien Ltd, The Mosaic Company, and K+S Potash Canada. But the landscape may soon change dramatically. Australian mining giant BHP is currently developing the Jansen project, also in Saskatchewan, which is touted to become the world’s largest potash mine, expected to produce 8.5 million tonnes per year from 2027. An ambitious goal, despite delays and an estimated $10 billion investment. 

Russia and Belarus’s dominant presence adds another layer of complexity. With over 24 million tonnes annually, these two countries remain indispensable suppliers to agricultural powerhouses like Brazil, China, and indeed the United States, which imported 10% of its potash from Russia in 2024. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, this concentration of supply exposes the market to risks of sanctions, supply disruptions, and price spikes. 

A Fertiliser Declared Critical 

Faced with this dependency, Washington has recognised the risk and is seeking to diversify its sources. In March 2025, the White House added potash to its list of critical minerals alongside uranium and copper. A presidential decree now compels federal agencies to accelerate mining approvals on U.S. soil. 

The U.S. is also leveraging financial and legislative tools, such as the Defense Production Act, to guarantee strategic domestic supply. For instance, Canadian company Sage Potash Corp recently secured a $14 million loan to develop a project in Utah targeting 300,000 tonnes per year. 

However, these domestic efforts will not suffice to meet the vast demands of American agribusiness. Hence Washington is also turning to partners beyond its borders, including Millennial Potash, a Canadian firm exploring a promising deposit in Africa. 

Uncle Sam’s Gabonese Gamble 

On Gabon’s south-west coast near the town of Mayumba, a major mining project is underway. Led by Canadian company Millennial Potash and its CEO Jason Wilkinson, the Banio site aims to become Africa’s first significant potash producer. Far from the plains of Saskatchewan, North America’s historic potash heartland, Millennial is betting on the exceptional geological potential of the Congo-Gabon Basin, one of the richest in the world. 

Potashing the Banio Project 

Banio project is still at the stage of exploration

According to a preliminary economic assessment published by Millennial in April 2024, Banio boasts solid fundamentals. The after-tax net present value stands at $1.07 billion, with an internal rate of return of 32.6%. The target production scenario envisages 800,000 tonnes annually at an average operating cost of $61 per tonne, figures that signal the potential project’s international competitiveness

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In the medium term, the company plans to launch its definitive feasibility study in November 2025, with completion expected in 2026. It is also aiming to make its final investment decision and submit a mining permit application at that time. Millennial Potash’s stated ambition is clear: to make Banio a key supplier not only for African agriculture but also for major importing markets such as Brazil, India, and the United States. 

Washington Opens the Wallet 

The project has recently secured significant political backing. In July, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) extended a USD$3 million loan to Millennial Potash, coupled with institutional support. A few days later, an official ceremony in Washington D.C. saw Gabonese President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema join Millennial’s Chairman Farhad Abasov and DFC Investment Director Conor Coleman. The message was unmistakable: the United States stands firmly behind this strategic endeavour. 

President Brice Oligui Nguema (center) alongside Farhad Abasaov, President of Millennial Potash (right), and Conor Coleman, Chief Investment Officer of DFC (left). July 2025

American support for Banio comes at a pivotal political moment for Gabon. The country, in post-coup transition, is preparing for its first legislative elections between late September and early October 2025. In April, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, architect of the 2023 coup, was elected president with 94% of the vote, following the adoption of a new constitution in late 2024. A page has turned after over half a century of Bongo family rule. 

Beyond politics, Gabon remains an economic partner for Washington, particularly for its exports of manganese, oil, and timber to the U.S., which totaled nearly $163 million in 2023. More importantly, the US administration, represented in Libreville by Ambassador Vernelle FitzPatrick, seeks to counter China’s growing influence in the region, where the prospect of a Chinese military base raises concern. 

African Potash: The Rise of a Key Player? 

Gabon does not appear to be the only African country rich in potash. In the Republic of Congo, British company Kore Potash is developing the Kola project, targeting 2.2 million tonnes annually. In Morocco, Australian firm Emmerson leads the Khemisset project, aiming for 700,000 tonnes per year. Ethiopia’s Danakali project, backed by Circum Minerals Limited, aimed for 750,000 tonnes annually before the Ethiopian government revoked its licences in April 2025, a stark reminder that access to resources remains tightly entwined with politics.

In the great potash game, Washington plants its flag on Gabonese soil as one would place a pawn on a geopolitical chessboard. Between the corn, soybean, and wheat fields of the US Midwest and the tropical forests of Central Africa, the race for this ochre mineral reveals a simple and relentless truth: in the silent war for resources, food sovereignty is decided far beyond the furrows and tractors. As the United States seeks to diversify its supplies, Gabon emerges as a rising star in a strategic market where political stakes intertwine closely with mining ambitions.